Humans have been looking up into the night sky for centuries. Our curiosity of the galaxy has led to our collective learning and development in such fields as astronomy and navigation. It has also opened up our minds to a set of very big questions like: Where did we come from? And: Are there others like us? With a universe so large, it seems unreasonable for us to assume that we are the only planet with intelligent life, but modern day science has yet to produce the evidence. Today we will look into three scientific theories to help us answer these two questions: Do aliens exist and what happened to them?
A brief introduction to Fermi and Drake:
Enrico Fermi was an Italian theoretical and experimental physicist who worked in particle physics and cosmic rays. Though he died in 1954 (only a few years after man launched the first rocket into outer space – the Bumper-WAC) he had developed a theory as to how to estimate the number of intelligent civilizations that COULD exist in the Milky Way Galaxy.
In 1961, Fermi’s theory was refined and formalized by a radio astronomer named Dr. Frank Drake. This calculation is commonly known as “Drake’s equation” and is widely accepted in the scientific community.
Drake’s Equation looks like this:
N = R* x fp x ne x fl x fi x fc x L
N = The number of civilizations in the Milky Way galaxy whose electromagnetic emissions are detectable.
R* = The rate of formation of stars suitable for the development of intelligent life.
fp = The fraction of those stars with planetary systems.
ne = The number of planets, per solar system, with an environment suitable for life.
fl = The fraction of suitable planets on which life actually appears.
fi = The fraction of life bearing planets on which intelligent life emerges.
fc = The fraction of civilizations that develop a technology that releases detectable signs of their existence into space.
L = The length of time such civilizations release detectable signals into space
It is estimated that there are about a trillion planets in the galaxy. Though this formula requires the user to make some assumptions to fill in the blanks of some of the variables, modern day theorists have all come out with similar results. N = a number in the thousands. Drake’s own result was aligned with this, as he estimated that N = 10,000. That’s right, folks. There should be about TEN- THOUSAND intelligent civilizations out there!
These thousands of likely alien civilizations are known as Fermi’s Paradox. In theory, there should be aliens all over the place, but the reality is that there is no scientific evidence. So where are all the aliens?
Theory 1: Aliens are here and have visited us on earth
This theory is the most fun to contemplate because the non-scientific evidence can be seen all around us. Let’s look at a few examples.
The Nazca Lines in Peru
These “lines” are trenches in the Nazca desert and don’t look like much from the ground, but when viewed from 1,500 feet in the sky, they form incredible pictures. They were created between 500 BC and 500 CE, long before man was capable of flight. Erich von Däniken (an “ancient alien” theorist and author) wrote about the Nazca lines in his bestselling book, “Chariots of the Gods?” He believes aliens or “ancient astronauts” had visited earth in this time frame, created the lines with their own modern technology, and used the graphic pictures as geographic markers to direct aerial traffic.
The Pyramids
The Great Pyramid of Giza was the first and largest Pyramid built in Egypt in 2551 BC. It stands 455 feet tall, is made up of 2.3 million lime and granite blocks, and each block weighs in at 2.5 tons. Two smaller pyramids were built on either side of it. Many believe that the construction of such structures would be impossible for the Egyptians living in that era. Add the fact that the pyramids also seem to have a celestial correlation and you’re off to the races. The three pyramids of Giza are perfectly, astronomically facing North-South and East-West. The tops of the pyramids are also perfectly aligned with the Orion constellation.
Ancient astronaut theorists also point to the unusual hieroglyphs depicting such things as: humans holding light bulbs, helicopters and fighter jet planes, and flying saucers with rays shining down on animals. Did ancient aliens visit the Egyptians (and many other cultures around the world) and assist them with the technology to construct these mammoth pyramids? Were the Egyptians drawing hieroglyphs of what they were seeing in real-life?
UFO sightings
Unidentified flying objects (UFOs) are not definitively “alien craft”. As the name suggests, they are simply objects that have not been “identified”. That being said, there have been compelling reports of UFO sightings from people all around the world and throughout our history. There are entirely too many to name here, but the first report was recorded in 1440 BC in Egypt. Pharaoh Thutmose III, not known for shenanigans and antics, said he saw fiery disks floating in the sky.
Over the centuries, the reports have come in by the thousands. At the time of this writing, the most recent UFO sighting was reported on Nov 8, 2018 by airliner pilots in Ireland. Again, these are highly intelligent and reputable people. The pilots stated that they saw very bright lights off of the South-West coast of Ireland. They said the lights traveled at a speed of at least Mach 2 and then veered off to the North. How can there be so many UFO sightings with no earthly explanation?
There are many more examples of inexplicable things found on our planet that make us question our belief in other worldly beings; however, most scientists agree that there is no “real” proof of aliens interfering with human life.
Theory 2: Aliens exist, but we haven’t discovered them yet
This theory is still a lot of fun to discuss because it leads to an eventual, proof-laden discovery of alien life. The solution to this mystery is in our future, and SETI (Search for Extra-Terrestrial Intelligence) is just the kind of group we need to find it!
SETI is a nonprofit scientific research institute headquartered in Mountain View, California. They are contractors to NASA and the National Science Foundation (NSF). SETI has been around since 1984 and presently has a team of 130 scientists whose primary objective is to search for electromagnetic radiation from extraterrestrial sources. Note: SETI does not broadcast signals, they only listen for signals.
Some would argue that, after all of these years of listening, if there was something to find, SETI would have found it by now. Perhaps, but there are many variables and hypothesis that support the possibility of aliens without EVER finding them.
Some Questions We Need to Ask Ourselves:
A telescope on earth could be looking at the correct star at the correct wavelength, but not at the right time. How long should that telescope stay fixated on that star? Did we miss a signal from the past? If we move it from its current position, will we miss a signal in the future?
Does silence really mean silence? If there are civilizations like ours, is it possible that they have evolved to the same degree and at the same time as humans? Are they more advanced or less advanced? Do they have their own version of SETI who are LISTENING for signals and also NOT BROADCASTING? Would they consider it a risk to broadcast a signal and potentially attract a violent civilization to come down and pay them a visit?
Could aliens be observing us like we observe animals in a zoo? Can advanced alien technology hide all signs of their existence from us? Has anyone seen a movie called “The Truman Show”? Assuming that there would be about ten-thousand alien civilizations, would all ten-thousand alien groups adhere to the same rules of not interfering with our primitive society? Is it their collective goal to make humans think that the entire universe is completely uninhabited so that we can develop as a species and come to our own moral conclusions?
Theory 3: No one is out there. It’s just us.
This theory is by far the bleakest of the three; however, the evidence is in the scientific community’s favor. So if it is just us, what makes us so special?
Some Hypothesis:
The “Rare Earth” hypothesis explains that earth’s large moon gives us good, stable weather. This particular set up could be very scarce and we have yet to find another one like it. Our moon is just the right size to stabilize our environment for billions of years. As an added bonus, earth has never been threatened by a supernova or a Gama ray burst. These natural occurrences have destroyed other planets and stars. Could our planet be extremely lucky?
As soon as conditions on earth were suitable for life to form, it went ahead and formed life. Scientists don’t know exactly how dead matter becomes live, but the transition from dead matter to live matter is a very big step. Single-celled organisms came into existence here on earth and took 3 billion years to evolve into multi-celled organisms. What is the length of time that a civilization lasts where they would become detectable? They are not “disturbing” the universe the way we would expect an advanced civilization to (i.e. broadcasting signals). Did we miss them?
If we find independently evolved life on Mars (or any other planet), then we will know that “life” will happen wherever it can. What if multi-cellular life can found everywhere? Maybe earth isn’t so special. And if earth isn’t special, then other planets populated by aliens could exist. Since we don’t see any of them around, this could mean that there is something exterminating that is either behind us or ahead of us. Have the aliens gone extinct? If yes, are humans just as likely to reach this eventuality?
So What’s Next?
People call the galaxy “The Great Silence”. It might be quiet up there, but I truly believe that we are not alone. Our ability to invent, create, and shatter our limitations to push further into the great beyond is what will lead us to discovering the truth.
Which of these theories makes the most sense to you? Is alien evidence all around us? Are we still waiting to find them? Are the aliens long gone or are they yet to be born in the future? Leave a comment below and tell me what you think.
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References: https://after-on.com/episodes/008
https://www.space.com/25219-drake-equation.html
https://www.nasa.gov/mission_pages/explorer/bumper.html
https://www.seti.org/drake-equation-index
https://www.bbc.com/news/av/world-us-canada-42405205/ufo-spotted-by-us-fighter-jet-pilots-new-footage-reveals
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_reported_UFO_sightings
Great article. Fermi’s paradox and Drake’s equation – well explained.
We are definitely not alone.
Thanks for inspiring this piece, Peter. I’m glad you liked it. Let me ask you this – if we are not alone, why don’t you think we’ve been able to reach the aliens directly? Do you have a theory?